Tesco - Where are we now ?

Where are we now and what does it mean

Figures and information have now been obtained about the proposed development of a ‘Superstore’ at Pennine Pets.
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Size of Store

The size of the store is 1,925 sq metres retail space and 885 sq metres warehousing etc making a total footprint of the store of 2,810 sq metres.

The current Tesco Metro on Market St has a retail area of 680 sq metres.

Thus the proposed store is 2.83 times the size of the existing store.
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Car Parking

On the face of it, car parking provision proposed for the new store seems excessive and the store size is some 500 sq metres smaller than we thought could be accommodated on the site.

Since we believe Tesco’s original aspiration was for a 24 hr Superstore + Petrol Station, it leads us to wonder if this proposal is a watered down version which could subsequently be altered by ‘working amendment’ by sacrificing some of the car parking and --

1) Increasing the size of the store or
2) Incorporating a petrol station

Against this argument however is the information in the following document

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2002/04/14550/3211

which basically says that Tesco believe that they require 1 car parking space per 10 sq metres of floorspace (- ie car parking provision proposed for this development is actually less than they would wish.)
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The Government lays down rules to limit the number of car parking spaces for these developments presumably to encourage walking and cycling. These are called Maximum Parking Standards. Local Authorities can make these more stringent but the National standards cannot be weakened.

The National Maximum Car Parking Standard for this kind and size of store is 1 non disabled car parking space per 14 sq metres of floorspace.

The Maximum Car parking standard for this kind and size of store adopted by Bolton Council is 1 non disabled car parking space per 16 sq metres of gross floorspace.
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The existing store has 58 car spaces including 4 disabled and 4 mother & child spaces. This figure also includes staff car parking.

The proposed store provides for 176 car spaces for the public (Including 12 disabled) plus 14 spaces in a separate staff car park = 190 gross parking spaces. This equates to 1 non disabled car parking space per 15.8 sq metres of store footprint.


Thus: The car parking proposed meets the National Standard and just about meets the Bolton Standard - ie it is not excessive
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What will the proposed store sell?

Definitions:-

‘Convenience shopping refers principally to Food shopping plus washing powder etc

‘Comparison’ shopping refers to Clothes, Shoes, Electrical , DVD’s, White Goods etc.

Tesco Metro deals solely with ‘Convenience’ Goods

It is now stated by Tesco that the new store will not be selling Comparison goods. It will just be selling Convenience goods.

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The Tesco development at Longcauseway ( which has 2.73 times the retail floor area of the proposed Pennine Pets development) will sell both Convenience and Comparison Goods)

At Longcauseway, there will be 2,792 sq metres of Convenience and 2,284 sq metres of Comparison goods.

Conclusion

If Pennine Pets sold both types of goods, this would be an attractive proposition for residents and an argument for the development. (Don’t have to trail to Asda for a pair of socks)

If Pennine Pets sold Convenience goods only then the benefit to residents would be limited and it could be argued that unless the existing store is massively overtrading, the new development would be less justified.

In either case, the expectations for the new development noted in posts on Facebook and LL Info would be disappointed.
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The Quantitative Need for the store – Bolton Councils Figures

Figures for the existing Metro store and the proposed development.

Using the figures from Bolton Council’s Retail and Leisure Survey the following can be assumed. (2011 figures)

Annual Turnover of Tesco Metro = 680 x £10,181 = £6,983,080

Annual Turnover of Pennine Pets proposal = 1,858 x £10,181 = £19,598,425

Increase in turnover of new store over existing store is thus £12,615,345
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The figures below relate to spending on convenience goods by the residents of what Bolton Council call Zone 6. This comprises all residents who have the Post Codes BL1 3 and BL1 2. This is shown on the map below.





All the figures quoted are taken directly from the Retail and Leisure Survey carried out by the Council’s consultants – Roger Tym & Partners in March 2008. This was part of the Local Development Framework which is the basis for the Bolton Core Strategy – the Bible of Bolton’s Planning from now until 2026.

The documents can be found at :-

http://www.bolton.gov.uk/website/pages/LDFEvidencebaseretailandleisurestudy.aspx?bid=2426

Figures for residents of Zone 6

(Little Lever Residents are roughly two thirds of this in each case)

Population 2008 - -21,036

Population 2011 - - 21,177

Population 2016 - - 21,455

Population 2021 - - 21,749

Population 2026 - - 21,986
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Convenience Goods Expenditure (per capita)

2011 - £1,627

2016 - £1,727

2021 - £1,834

2026 - £1,946
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Total Convenience Goods Expenditure and Expenditure Growth (@2005 prices)

2011 - £33.3m

2016 - £35.7m

2021 - £38.4m

2026 - £41.2m
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Main locations of Zone 6 Convenience expenditure	% of total	Value £m
Asda Burnden	24.57%	£7.89m
Other stores – Little Lever	13.52%	£4.34m ****
Asda Farnworth	9.15%	£2.94m
Asda Radcliffe	12.15%	£3.9m
Sainsbury Trinity St	8.36%	£2.69m
Morrisons Blackhorse St	6.63%	£2.13m
Other stores Bolton	5.81%	£1.87m
Morrisons Mornington Rd	4.74%	1.52m
Tesco Horwich	2.16%	£0.69m
Tesco Bury	3.79%	£1.22m
Tesco Walkden	0.95%	£0.30m
Totals of above	91.83%	£29.49m
Balance spent elswhere	8.17%	2.62m

*** This survey was done before Tesco Metro took over the Somerfield store on Market St.

Using sales density figures for 2011 assumed in the survey, Tesco Metro on its own is now turning over £6,983,080.

It must be assumed therefore that the Somerfield store was massively undertrading

The main observation from the above is that Zone 6 is spending £14.73m at the assorted Asda's and only £2.21m at the big Tesco’s

This must be qualified by the increased turnover at Tesco Metro which must be at the expense of the other stores.
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Conclusion

It is not unreasonable to assume that Tesco’s purpose for this development is to ‘screw’ Asda.
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Bolton Core Strategy

The figures here relate to the whole of the Borough.

This document produced at immense expense and recently approved by the Government Inspector lays out the plans for the Borough over the next 15 yrs.

In relation to Retail - This states:-


4.14 The Core Strategy proposes to increase the quantity of retail floor space in the borough, concentrated mostly in Bolton town centre.

This reflects the objective of creating a transformed and vibrant town centre, as well as complying with Government advice contained in PPS4.

This approach is supported by the findings of the council’s Retail and Leisure Study.

This identifies a requirement up to 2026, of between 9,200 and 11,000 square metres for convenience goods and between 74,300 and 134,600 square metres for comparison goods, in addition to schemes that already have planning permission.

This additional floor space should be developed after 2016.

The study identifies localised deficiencies in convenience shopping in Westhoughton, Little Lever and the northern parts of the borough around Egerton and Bromley Cross, as well as the need to identify easy access to facilities by people facing social exclusion including access to fresh foods.

These figures are for the whole of the Borough.

This results in the Council Policy as follows:-

Policy P2

The council and its partners will:

1. Identify a range of sites for new retail development to allow for a comparison goods floor space of up to 130,000 square metres after 2016, concentrated in Bolton town centre.

2. Concentrate bulky goods retailing on the edge of centres, especially Bolton town centre.

3. Plan for additional convenience goods floor space of up to 10,000 square metres in town, district and local centres where local communities have good access.
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If we examine the figures in the Retail and Leisure survey we can find the Convenience Floorspace Requirement for the whole of the Borough at each of the five year points in this plan ie 2011, 2016, 2021, and 2026.

There are two sets of figures. The second set includes an allowance for overtrading at existing stores.

These are as follows:-

Without an allowance for overtrading:-

Year	Net floorspace requ’dIn	Gross floorspace requ’d
2011	- 476 sq metres	- 733 sq metres
2016	- 1,256 sq metres	- 1932 sq metres
2021	+ 2,726 sq metres	+ 4,195 sq metres
2026	+ 6,510 sq metres	+ 10,016 sq metres

With an allowance for overtrading:-

Year	Net floorspace requ’dIn	Gross floorspace requ’d
2011	+ 793 sq metres	+ 1,220 sq metres
2016	- 24 sq metres	- 37 sq metres
2021	+ 3,922 sq metres	+ 6,034 sq metres
2026	+ 7,671 sq metres	+ 11,801 sq metres

These figures take into account the Sainsbury’s development at Cricketers Way (which is now trading) and the proposed Tesco development at Central St (Back of the Old Post Office and Victoria Hall) which has outline planning permission for a 7,973 sq metre food store but has yet to be built.

They do not take into account the Tesco Longcauseway development which is shortly to open. This development contains net convenience floorspace of 2,792 sq metres.

They do not take into account the Tesco Kearsley development or any recent or proposed increases in convenience floorspace at Middlebrook.
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Summary of what the above means:-


(Adding in the Longcauseway figures and allowing for overtrading)

2011 - The Borough already has 1,999 sq metres of convenience retail floorspace more than it requires

2016 - The Borough will still have 2,768 sq metres of convenience retail floorspace more than it requires

Between 2016 and 2021, the Borough will require an additional 1,130 sq metres of convenience retail floorspace.

Please note that these figures do not take any account of reduction of projected turnover due to the recession.
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Conclusion

The Bolton Core Strategy is saying that there is no need for additional Convenience retail floorspace until after 2016.

Thereafter – between 2016 and 2021 there is a need for an extra 1,130 sq metres which is 795 sq metres less than the proposed 1,925 sq metres proposed for Pennine Pets.

I would contend that to grant planning permission for this development would, in this respect, be a breach of the Council’s own Core Strategy.

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However, against this is the statement in the main report as follows:-

4.58 Thus, the survey findings suggest that there is a need for an improved convenience offer in Egerton, Westhoughton and Little Lever and we endorse the extant consent for a J Sainsbury store at Westhoughton.